Politics· United States
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- 26%Jon Ossoff
- 15%Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
- 10%Gavin Newsom
- 6%Josh Shapiro
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Intelligence
What prediction markets price for the questions in the news, and the dated next steps our reporting points to. Updated every few minutes.
12.5%
Watchful
Average probability traders give 25 escalation questions (strikes, invasions, clashes, coups), weighted by trading activity.
How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5.00%
56%
▼ 22.0 ptsWhich coalition will form the next Swedish government?
M + KD + L + C
62%
▲ 15.6 ptsWill Russia capture all of Bilytske by...?
November 30
30%
▼ 15.5 ptsWho will Trump meet with by November 30?
Elon Musk
93%
▲ 13.0 ptsFAA outage attributed to hack?
1%
▼ 12.0 ptsSaudi coalition strike in Yemen on...?
November 16
98%
▲ 11.3 pts8%
▼ 1.0 ptscloses 1 Jan 2027
3%
closes 1 Jan 2027
2%
closes 1 Jan 2027
3%
closes 1 Jan 2027
2%
closes 1 Jan 2027
6%
closes 1 Jan 2027
2%
closes 1 Jan 2027
2%
Our reporting
closes 1 Jan 2027
Probabilities are the prices traders pay for "Yes" on the Polymarket prediction market, not NewsWLD forecasts. Markets can be thin, wrong or moved by a few large traders. We do not link to the market or encourage betting.